San Diego’s Economy Forecast To Be ‘Better Than Normal’

The next two years will be San Diego’s best since the end of the Great Recession, according to Mark Schniepp, director of the California Economic Forecast.

Schniepp, along with Svenja Maarit Gudell, director of economic research at Zillow; Jerry Nickelsburg, adjunct professor of economics at the UCLA Anderson School of Management and senior economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast; William Yu, economist for the UCLA Anderson Forecast; Jim Costello, managing director of Americas research for CBRE; and David Osias, managing partner at Allen Matkins discussed the local, state and national economies at a regional breakfast series presented by the UCLA Anderson Forecast on Thursday at the UCSD Ida and Cecil Green Faculty Club.

Home prices in the San Diego metro area historically increase about 4.3 percent year over year, and but increased 15.1 percent from February 2013 to February 2014, Gudell said.

San Diego’s median home value is $445,100, according to the Zillow Home Value Index, and Gudell forecast a 4.1 percent home appreciation in San Diego in the next 12 months.

Home values are still down 17 percent from the peak, she said.

Increasing home prices have pushed many underwater homeowners into positive equity, bringing the remaining percentage of mortgaged homeowners who are underwater to 13.1 as of the fourth quarter of 2013 — less than the nation’s 19.4 percent, according to Gudell.

She doesn’t expect mortgage rates to significantly affect the housing market and anticipates an increase in demand as households that doubled up during the recession begin to break apart.  ( —> read more )

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