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Leading Economic Indicators Up in August
Note: A problem with the online help wanted advertising data prevented the release of the Index since the beginning of the year. It was difficult to find a replacement and consideration was given to eliminating the component but the problem was resolved in recent days. The Index will go back to its normal monthly publication schedule and the tentative release date of next month’s report is October 30.
Oct. 8, 2014 — The USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County rose 0.3 percent in August. Four of the six components were up during the month, with initial claims for unemployment insurance and consumer confidence sharply positive and help wanted advertising and the outlook for the national economy up modestly. On the downside, there was a big drop in residential units authorized by building permits and a very small decline in local stock prices.
August’s increase was the sixth gain in the USD Index in the first eight months of 2014. The Index started the year strongly, had two bad months in the spring, and has now increased for three consecutive months. The outlook is for continued solid growth in San Diego’s economy at least through the first half of 2015. The local economy has done well so far this year, with the county on a pace to add almost 31,000 jobs. If that pace continues, it would be the third consecutive year with an increase of more than 30,000 jobs. The last time that happened was during the period 1997 – 2000, which was the “Golden Age” of job growth in San Diego.
Index of Leading Economic Indicators The index for San Diego County that includes the components listed below (August)Source: USD Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate | +0.3% |
Building Permits Residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County (Aug)Source: California Homebuilding Foundation | -1.59% |
Unemployment Insurance Initial claims for unemployment insurance inSan Diego County, inverted (August)Source: Employment Development Department | +1.55% |
Stock Prices San Diego Stock Exchange Index (August)Source: San Diego Daily Transcript | -0.02% |
Consumer Confidence An index of consumer confidence in San Diego County , estimated (August)Source: The Conference Board | +1.02% |
Help Wanted Advertising An index of online help wanted advertising inSan Diego (August)Source: The Conference Board | +0.41% |
National Economy Index of Leading Economic Indicators (August)Source: The Conference Board | +0.38% |
School of Business Administration, 5998 Alcalá Park, San Diego, California 92110-2492, 619/260-2256
Highlights: Residential units authorized by building permits have been weak in 2014, with the component declining in seven of the year’s eight months. Overall, permits are down 2 percent compared to the same period in 2013, with single-family units virtually flat and multi-family units accounting for most of the modest decline. . . Both labor market variables were positive in August. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply during the month, which is a positive for the Index and a sign that the pace of job loss is easing. At the same time, hiring plans by businesses picked up as was indicated by an increase in help wanted advertising. The net result was that the seasonally adjusted local unemployment rate fell to 6.0 percent in August, down from 6.2 percent in July and 7.7 percent in August 2013. . . One strong point for the USD Index has been consumer confidence. After a tiny dip in January, consumer confidence rose in every other month of 2014 so far. This is important as consumer spending is typically two-thirds or more of activity in an economy. . . Local stock prices were down 1.87 percent for the year through August as investors became cautious about the prospects for San Diego-based companies. This ran counter to the broader market averages, which were all positive for the year through August. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite were up 3.29 percent, 8.21 percent, and 9.44 percent respectively. . . The national Index of Leading Economic Indicators has been up in every month of 2014, which forecasts continued growth in the national economy. After a weather-related drop of 2.1 percent in the first quarter, GDP growth picked up in the second quarter, with the third estimate coming in at a strong 4.6 percent annualized rate. Job growth has been solid at the national level, with nearly 1.8 million jobs added to the national economy so far this year. As a result, the national unemployment rate fell below 6 percent for the first time since July 2008.
August’s increase puts the USD Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 128.5, up from July’s reading of 128.1. For revisions to the previously reported values for the Index and for the individual components, please visit the Website address given below. The values for the USD Index for the last year are given below:
Index % Change
AUG 127.1 +0.2
SEP 127.6 +0.4
OCT 127.0 -0.5
NOV 127.5 +0.4
DEC 127.5 +0.0
JAN 127.6 +0.1
FEB 127.9 +0.2
MAR 128.6 +0.5
APR 127.9 -0.5
MAY 127.5 -0.3
JUN 127.7 +0.2
JUL 128.1 +0.3
AUG 128.5 +0.3
For more information on the University of San Diego’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, please contact:
Professor Alan Gin TEL: (858) 603-3873
School of Business Administration FAX: (858) 260-4891
University of San Diego E-mail: agin@sandiego.edu
5998 Alcalá Park Website: http://www.sandiego.edu/~agin/usdlei
San Diego, CA 92110 Twitter: @alanginusdsba
In a separate report, the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate released its Casden Real Estate Economics multifamily forecast, saying San Diego’s vacancy rate had dipped to “an almost absurd 2.3 percent” in the second quarter, based on projects of 15-20 units.
The USC Lusk Center will hold an executive forum on real estate prospects Oct. 9 at the W San Diego Hotel, 421 W. B St. in downtown San Diego. Sullivan will moderate. Information is available online atlusk.usc.edu.
Rents had increased in all 15 submarkets analyzed and a net 1,490 units had been rented in the quarter ending June 30.
“Overall, these dynamics point to an increase in the demand for multifamily rental housing,” Casden said, “and a tightening rental market.”
The highest rent increase over the last year occurred in the Mira Mesa-Rancho Bernardo area with a 3.5 percent rise to $1,637. The area between Hillcrest and Normal Heights rose the least, up 1.8 percent to $1,081.
Vacancies ranged from 12.7 percent in the area between Clairemont and Mission Valley to 0.9 percent in the Mission Beach-Pacific Beach area.
The Casden forecast for San Diego shows a 2.9 percent rental increase over the next year with El Cajon, Santee, Lakeside, Ocean Beach and Point Loma going up the most. (read more —> )
courtesy of: http://lusk.usc.edu/news/
Salar de Uyuni comprises over 10,000km². The salt is over 10 meters thick in the centre. In the dry season, the salt plains are a completely flat expanse of dry salt, but in the wet season, it is covered with a thin sheet of water that is still drivable.
courtesy of: http://www.viralnova.com/ & http://wikitravel.org/
courtesy of: http://news.distractify.com/people/
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courtesy of: http://www.pinterest.com/ottsworld/free-museums-around-the-globe/
All too often, public works of art have a polarizing effect – you either love it, hate it, or are indifferent to it. In San Diego, works of public art often become controversial – mostly because many proposed works which could elevate the city’s desire to project a sophisticated image clashes with the reality that we’re still a provincial and unsophisticated city at heart.
Which is too bad. Now, I’m not saying I’m a non-discriminating proponent of all avant garde public art (did anyone really like that turd-like sculpture in front of Scripps Clinic on North Torrey Pines Road?), but how many bronzed sailboats and leaping dolphins do we need? Let’s challenge ourselves just a little bit. But I seriously doubt the wonderful painted cow sculptures of Chicago (or the painted pigs in Seattle) would have flown here in San Diego had we been approached first with the concept. Heck, we’d probably turn down a request by Christo to drape the Coronado Bridge in fabric.
So, we’re often left with little works of art to discover and admire, rather than grand statements. And that’s OK, as long as they’re as clever as one you’ll find on the 25th Street Bridge spanning the Martin Luther King Jr. Freeway (State Route 94) linking the neighborhoods of Golden Hill to the north and Sherman Heights to the south.
Actually, the artwork isn’t so much the bridge itself as it is the railing separating the sidewalk from the traffic on the west side of the bridge. Artist Roman de Salvo had the idea of creating a “song rail” – a carillon, which is a series of chromatic bells that plays a tune when struck in sequence. If you’ve ever run a stick along a picket fence while walking, then you’ll get the idea.
So, in essence, de Salvo has created a work of art that is not only functional but also beautiful – a melding of safety and music in a most unique way – and it serves as a symbolic gesture of bridging the two neighborhoods of Golden Hill and Sherman Heights. The song rail’s tune is called the “Crab Carillon,” and was written solely for the project by SDSU music instructor Joseph Waters, and plays the same whether walking in either direction.
The Golden Hill Community Development Corporation received a $200,000 grant from SANDAG for the pedestrian safety improvements and secured a $39,000 grant from the City of San Diego Arts and Culture program for the song rail. So, sometimes public art doesn’t have to be grandiose or bizarre to make an impression on the public. And the 25th Street Musical Bridge is a perfect example.
So, next time you’re speeding down the King Freeway heading into or out of downtown, take a look at the 25th Street bridge and know that there’s a clever little gem hidden on the structure. And maybe you’ll take the time to pull off the freeway and stroll across the bridge to the tune of the “Crab Carillon.”
courtesy of: http://sandiego.about.com/